Predictive accuracy of Rocalls Risk score for in hospital mortality of Patients with Variceal Upper GI Bleed

Abstract

Background: Variceal bleeding is an important issue in an emergency department. Prediction of risk in the patients with variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding has been subject. A limited data is available for the prediction of variceal bleeding and in hospital mortality using Rockall risk score. Aim: To determine diagnostic accuracy of Rockall risk score for hospital mortality of patients having variceal upper Gl bleeding Setting: Study was conducted in medical departments of Mayo Hospital Lahore. Duration: Study was carried out from 14-05-2014 to 13-11-2014 Study design: It was cross sectional study Data collection procedure: Total of 254 cases with variceal upper GI were enrolled in this study. Basic demographic features like age, gender were noted for each patient. Appropriate pharmacological and endoscopic therapy such as double IV line, proton pump inhibitors, vasoactive drugs and IV antibiotics were given. Endoscopy was done for endoscopic variceal band ligation and then patients were followed for in hospital outcome. Data collected was entered and analyzed using SPSS 20. Results: Age mean of patients was 51.87±14.53 years. 56% male patients and 44% female. Mean Rockall risk score was 3.73±1.17. Ranging from 2-8 There were 112(44.1%) patients who had Rockall risk score>4and 142 patients had Rockall risk score as <4.In hospital mortality results showed that 71(28%) patients had in hospital mortality while the remaining 183(72%) of the patients survived. Sensitivity and specificity of Rockall risk score was 98.59% and 77.05%. Conclusion: According to this study Rockall risk score be used to predict hospital mortality in patients with variceal upper GI bleeding.