Load Dispatch Management Using Trend Analysis of Demand and Generation in Pakistan

Abstract

Load management has been an enigma despite the adequate level of production of electricity. This research focuses on the short-term evaluation of the maximum output of various electricity generation facilities to meet the required system load at minimum possible cost without disrupting the regular power supply to the end users and aimed to give overview of the economic load dispatch problem regarding abrupt variations in monthly load demand and generation throughout the year. The research analysis was conducted by using daily data regarding the generation, load demand across the country and power system constraints of generation and transmission. The aspect of reduction in share of Hydel generation during canals closure at water scarcity season every year has also been taken into account. By analyzing both the actual and predicted values at load dispatch center, it provides monthly trend of generation, consumer demand and load shed at the same time. Daily and monthly data figures of the last 06 years in MW/GWh is analyzed and executed. Values have been plotted in graphs to understand the monthly/annual variations in total generation and total demand. Research is aimed to improving the quality of power dispatch and deriving workable solutions.