Impact of National Elections on Stock and Commodity Market of Pakistan (1997-2013)

Abstract

This study aims to explore the impact of national elections on stock and commodity market of Pakistan for the sample period of 1997 to 2013. Four national elections were held during the sampled period. The impact of these four national elections on stock market and the latest two national elections on commodity market are analyzed. The later are restricted to national election 2008 and 2013 due to establishment of Pakistan mercantile exchange in 2007. The stock and commodity returns that is average abnormal return (AABR) and cumulative average abnormal return (CAABR) are computed for a time window of 41 days that is 20 days prior, Election Day, and 20 days after the election. The returns of 120 days before the proposed time window are taken as a benchmark. The results indicate both positive and negative abnormal return in the proposed time frame for both average abnormal return and cumulative average abnormal return by employing market model and market model adjusted for GARCH. Similarly, the cumulative average abnormal returns are tested for different time span and results show abnormal return for all the national elections both for stock and commodity markets. The results indicate that both Karachi stock exchange and Pakistan mercantile exchange exhibit inefficient behavior around these national elections.