VULNERABILITY OF MAJOR CROPS TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN PAKISTAN: TIME SERIES ASCERTAINMENT

Abstract

Climate change has emerged as a major environmental threat towards the agrarian economy of Pakistan with significant pressures on agriculture production abilities, ecosystem functioning, availability of water assets and also affecting the economic firmness. Increase in atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases has produced significant effects on the climate of our home land in the coming years and this would transform our normal climate, leading towards extreme weather happenings. The current study traced out the impact of climate change on major crops of Pakistan i.e. wheat, rice, maize, sugarcane and cotton by employing Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model. Yearly seasonal data (from 1983 to 2013) published by the Metrological Department of Pakistan and Agriculture Statistics of Pakistan was used. It was revealed that climate change has significant influence on production abilities of major crops in Pakistan. Temperature variable has lasting impacts on crop production. Average minimum temperature played a positive role towards the production of wheat, maize and cotton while reduced the production abilities of rice and sugarcane crop. In case of wheat it showed about 17 percent increase in production due to minimum temperature and showed about 4 percent increase in cotton production. Average maximum temperature also showed positive effects for cotton and maize crop and reduced the production abilities of wheat, rice and sugarcane crops. Average temperature increased production of cotton and sugarcane and lasted negative impacts on wheat, maize and rice. Average temperature increase from four to five degree till 2030 brought reduction in maize production about 5.8 percent. Rainfall is going to be beneficial for sugarcane crop xxiii production. However, it negatively affects wheat, maize and cotton crop. In case of rice it has a beneficial impact in initial period. However, in the long run, it has a negative impact. Variance decomposition showed that average rainfall has brought about 13 percent variations in cotton production hence creating a negative impact while in case of sugarcane it only showed about 2 percent variation. Water availability significantly added for the entire major crops showing that time availability of the water required fairly enhances crop productions. Fertilizer role towards crop production were also very positive i.e. timely fertilizer application enhanced crop production for all the crops. Augmenting research and development policies, public private partnership are the key options to mitigate the harmful effects. Introducing heat and drought resistant crop varieties, improvement in existing irrigation systems, adjusting timings of cultivation will definitely eliminate the catastrophic effects of climate change.