STABILITY AND INSTABILITY PARADOX IN THE GULF; IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN

Abstract

The Research Project is influenced by scholar’s intellectual interest in the subject of Power and Security as a primary concerns of states. The quest for knowledge motivated to visit different institutes at Qatar, Bahrain, China, Russia and Japan where interaction was arranged with a number of scholars and think tanks and gathered their valuable input on the research project. Additionally, the opportunity of faculty member at National Defense University Islamabad was availed in interacting with senior military officers from UK, USA, Australia, Saudi Arabia, China, UAE, Qatar, Oman, Jordan, Egypt, Turkey and Palestine. Their input was very valuable and succinct towards the conduct of research. The location of Gulf Region is in Asian Continent and it characterizes one of the ocean arms that extended in the Strait of Hormuz, the gate of Gulf. However the Strait of Hormuz has base in Iran, Kuwait and Iraq also share its coasts. West coast of the Gulf covers the eastern bounds of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries which include Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE and Oman. Strait of Hormuz in the south of Gulf is considered to be controlling strategic position. The contemporary phase of international politics and its economic reflections have been crafted by international events such as 9/11 that had particularly changed the dynamics of Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain from religious orientation to the democratic side. The importance of the region can be understood by its long lasting international headlines that had made its place for many decades. Despite its traditional security environment, the region has developed a fresh impetus immediately after the 9/11 incident along with Iraqi invasion by the US forces. The post 9/11 international order is affecting the gulf in many ways. The mechanism of Collective Security by GCC countries, the presence of Extra Regional Forces (ERF) in the Gulf, the interests of great and regional powers, mature political institutions of gulf countries is providing stability to the region. However, same stability is paradoxical as it contains potential instability as the often conflicting interests of great powers like USA, Russia and China and regional powers like Iran and Saudi Arabia, vulnerable political institutions in the backdrop of vi evolving Arab Spring with simmering effects in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, the public discontentment with presence of foreign forces in the region and looming crisis over Iran’s nuclear programme are potential destablising factors. The research project has been viewed from the lens of Power. The concept of Power Beyond State (IR-Realism) and the concept of Power Within State (Political Science-Three Dimensions of Power). No one theory deals with both dimensions of power concurrently, therefore, the scholar has proposed a new theory by joining both the aspects of Power. The proposed theory is “Stability-Instability Regime Theory”.