Climate Change and Health: A Case Study of Pakistan

Abstract

This thesis analyzes the impact of climate change on health in two cities of Pakistan; i. e. Lahore and Rawalpindi. Lahore is relatively hotter and Rawalpindi is relatively colder. The data have been collected from selected hospitals of both cities. The study focuses on the nexus between GHG emission; rising temperature and health. We investigate what is the contribution of transport sector in GHG emissions and resultantly how the emissions (one of the indicators of temperature change) have caused temperature to rise and then estimate the relationship between temperature and health. In this study the relationship between emissions from the transport sector and Pakistan‟s temperature has been tested empirically. Based on data of carbon dioxide from road transport sector, minimum and maximum emissions of carbon dioxide emissions from road transport sector and their damages in financial terms have been forecasted up till 2030. The data of cardiovascular diseases (indicator of state of health) from different hospitals of Lahore and Rawalpindi have been collected to assess the relationship between health and temperature. The study has found inverse relationship between cardiovascular diseases and temperature for Lahore whereas this relationship has been found to be positive for Rawalpindi. This study also calculated the direct and indirect cost of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). The findings of this study show that direct cost of CVD is much larger then indirect cost. The study also uses the Contingent Valuation method to calculate the willingness to pay for a better traffic system and enhanced health program specifically for cardiovascular diseases in Lahore. The findings indicate that the people of Lahore are more conscious about their health as they are ready to pay more for improved health program as compared to better traffic system.