South Asian Security Dilemma-The Strategic Triangle: India-Pakistan and China

Abstract

The Post-Cold war scenario has induced diverse strategic implications on the South Asian security architecture that envisioned competition between India, Pakistan and China. China’s enduring military modernization and economic rise strengthened its intent to get super power status in future that shaped mistrust for the US as the US assumes China as its potential competitor. To restrain China’s rise, the US planned a ring of encirclement with the collaboration of various regional players including India. The emerging Sino-US animosity and China’s ongoing power progression distresses India’s security framework. The spectrum of India’s security widened and it devised multiple counter containment strategies vis a vis China. On the other hand, Pakistan’s threat perceptions are mainly Indo-centric and Sino-Indian strategic resentment generated serious strategic repercussions for Pakistan and provoked security dilemma between India, Pakistan and China. In order to dilate upon the subject matter, Realist Paradigm and its key drivers (through qualitative approach) provide theoretical understanding to ascertain trilateral security dilemma that ultimately leads toward regional instability. Contours of South Asian strategic puzzle are mainly based on India-Pakistan relations and after becoming overt nuclear powers, both the states commanded restraint. They only faced limited armed conflict in 1999. Likewise, Sino-Indian aversion diversified regional strategic environment vulnerable and for avoiding any upcoming Indo-Pak and Sino-Indian nuclear conflict, the three states adopted ‘Minimum Credible Deterrence’ postures on similar footings. Nonetheless, their persisting ambiguities and deeprooted multidimensional conflicts disrupted South Asian stability. For sustaining strategic stability, various formal and informal arms control measures have been proposed on bilateral, trilateral, multilateral and regional institutional level. Informal measures are comparatively more convincing since they address the root causes of trilateral trust deficit through Confidence Building Measures. It offers that China’s gambit through trade with India and Pakistan particularly in the backdrop of ‘One Belt One Road’, will have spillover impact on Indo-Pak relations that have a potential to ultimately uphold South Asian strategic stability in future.