Rising Asymmetry in South Asia and the Emerging Challenges to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

Abstract

The development of the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was the result of continuous efforts and by product of liberalism. The treaty provides basis to non-proliferation mechanism aimed at halting spread of nuclear weapons. It is near universal treaty because Pakistan and India never signed the treaty in fact both states applied teachings of realism and off-shoots of realism such as nuclear deterrence theory to develop nuclear weapons as non-NPT states. Following nuclear weapons development India continues to produce weapons grade fissile material and expanding the size of nuclear reactors to be recognized as emerging regional power. India aspires to accomplish this goal with the help of nuclear and non nuclear weapons states signatories to the NPT. Nuclear weapons states are providing assistance to Indian in violation of the Article I of the treaty while non nuclear weapons states are breaking their promise pledged under Article II of the treaty. Indian gigantic military, the provocative Cold Start Doctrine (CSD), growing nuclear stockpiles, massive conventional forces, Theater and Ballistic Missile Defence tilt the favor of rising deterrent force asymmetry in New Delhi‟s favor. It is gradually introducing changes in its nuclear doctrine by replacing Credible Minimum Deterrent (CMD) posture with the overkill capacity. It is nuclearizing the Indian Ocean in pursuit to complete nuclear triad to ensure escalation dominance vis-à-vis Pakistan. India enjoys conventional asymmetry and it aspires to perpetually tilt the rising deterrent force asymmetry in its favor. New Delhi thus poses existential threat to Pakistan‟s security. These developments and Indian military modernization program thus disturbs strategic stability. Consequentially, teaching of security dilemma coerced Pakistan to develop battlefield/ tactical missiles, Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVS), Maneuverable Reentry Vehicles (MRVs) and rely on nuclear deterrent to thwart Indian aggression. India and Pakistan rivalry creates fear of inadvertent and deliberate nuclear war. Further, it poses twofold challenge to the NPT. First, India-Pakistan rivalry is systemically linked with United States and China it prevents Washington and Beijing from implementing Article VI, of the NPT thus poses direct challenge to the treaty. Second, the efficacy, nuclear doctrines and the role of nuclear weapons in India and Pakistan national security strategies increases strategic and political significance of nuclear weaponry for non-nuclear weapons states. It is possible that Non Nuclear Weapon States (NNWS) may draw inferences that nuclear weapons provide absolute security hence may decide to develop nuclear deterrent in violation of the Article II and Article IV of the NPT and exercise the withdrawal clause Article X of the NPT. It is therefore stated that New Delhi and Islamabad undermines the efficacy and the future relevance of the NPT. South Asian outlier states thus pose indirect challenge to the NPT. For sustaining regional strategic stability, war avoidance, to address the root cause of trust deficit and to bring India and Pakistan directly or indirectly into the NPT framework to strengthen the NPT formal and informal arms control measures (Abbasi‟s Model or the NPT + the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and India-Pakistan formula) have been proposed.