Dynamics of Human Capital Flight from Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract

The thesis is a systematic study of the causes of emigration, particularly of human capital flows and human capital flight (i.e., brain drain) from Pakistan to 27 destination countries over the past 36 years. The study reviews relevant Pakistani migration history, summarizes and compares models of migration, review empirical studies from multiple disciplines, develops a bi-polar specification of gravity model based on push and pull factors and augmented by a neo-classical utilitarian approach of migration, locates relevant data from Pakistan and 27 major destination countries, construct indices from drivers of human capital mobility using principal component and principal factor analysis, presents dynamic analyses of the drivers of human capital mobility from Pakistan with panel unit root tests, pairwise panel Granger causality test and dynamic ordinary least squares co-integration regressions, and interprets the results with particular attention to differences by regional destinations and to policy implications. Over all the empirical findings support the underlying theories of migration, and helps to conclude that in an over-populated country like Pakistan, unplanned brain-drain need to be re-oriented: first, to take the form of planned brain-export to improve the national balance sheet through foreign earnings in form of foreign direct investment and remittances from overseas Pakistanis and secondly, through the return of experienced Pakistani diaspora and through the realization of professional and technical education in case of brain circulation