Development of an Economic Model for Load Dispatch Center to Overcome Energy Crises in Pakistan

Abstract

Operational functions such as to maintain a balance between demands as well as generation happens to be one of the main functions carried out by the latest energy management system. Actually, this is termed as the short-term evaluation of the maximum output of different power generation facilities to meet the required total system load at minimum possible cost without disrupting the regular power supply to the end users. The overloadswould result in the entire system’s instability and increased likelihood of blackouts. The analysis is aimed to give an overview of the economic load dispatch problem regarding abrupt variations in monthly load demand and generation throughout the year. During the research, time series analysis is conducted by using daily data regarding the generation and load demand across the country both for considering with/without losses. Real-time data for power system components of 64 power plants, 496 generating units, 17(500 KV Grid Stations), 35(220 KV Grid Stations), 900(132 KV Grid Stations) and 500/220/132 KV transmission network lines is used. Generation, demand and load management measures acquired from actual daily data associated with demand and supply, power system constraints have also been considered. The aspect of reduction in Hydel generation share during canals closure at water scar season every year has also been taken into account. Daily and monthly data figures of the last 12 years in MW/GWh is analyzed and executed by using time series analysis. Durbin Watson statistics is used to detect auto correlation; also Dickey-Fuller test was performed to check covariance stationarity. Values have been plotted in graphs to understand the monthly/annual variations in total generation and total demand. Research is aimed at improving the quality of power dispatch and deriving workable solutions. Holt-Winters forecasting techniques are applied to analyze both the actual and predicted values of generation, demand and load shed of every month at load dispatch center. It also provides monthly trend of generation, consumer demand and load shed at the same time. The methodology is based on the integrated system modeling. The main purpose is to minimize the total per unit fuel cost without violating system constraints. In case of Pakistan energy scenario, system does not have surplus energy but having short fall. By keeping in mind the current emergent situation and to cope up this problem, national utility system has been analyzed with reference to its operation problems and all the generation is grouped into fuel source wise, and then optimized. Case studies with different fuel sources have also been discussed. All the analyses are executed in MATLAB environment. An overall optimization at the national level shows that there are opportunities to better utilize low cost generators, curtailing usage of higher cost units and increasing electric power trade, considering with and without losses, which would ultimately allow customers to benefit from lower electricity prices. Finally, the thesis recommends managerial actions, structural overhaul in the existing energy system of NTDC, gas allocation to generating plants by using economic criteria, energy sector smart solutions and remedies, to make it sustainable and more versatile to cope up the current and future challenges.