DYNAMICS OF INFLATION, EXCHANGE RATES AND INFLATION TARGETING IN PAKISTAN

Abstract

This study examines inflation and the choice of monetary policy regime in Pakistan. Using the annual series of 1970-71 to 2008-09 and the monthly series of 1990:M1- 2007:M9, the study employs unstructured VAR, Time Varying Parameter and State Space models for understanding the dynamics of inflation and monetary policy in Pakistan. It is observed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the official measure of inflation in Pakistan, has not only an upward bias but also has methodological deficiencies. Further, the study investigates the direction of causation between the CPI, money supply, exchange rate, interest rate, oil prices, and fiscal deficit to conclude that there exists bidirectional causality between the CPI and call money rate. Analysis of determinants of inflation shows that inflation in Pakisan is monetary in nature: inflation, interest rate and money supply move together. The study then goes on to find that inflation generates negative shocks and it can, therefore, hamper growth. It infers that there is no evidence of the accelerationist hypothesis in Pakistan. Furthermore, it is shown that forward-looking expectations of households and businesses play an important role in causing inflation in the country. In this context, the study provides information on the issue of volatility and uncertainty arising from unstable monetary rules. It confirms that the State Bank of Pakistan does not have an aggressive policy for controlling inflation and minimzing output gap. The study thus seeks to contribute to the debate on discretionary versus rule-based monetary policy to explore what suits best the case of Pakistan. It also comments on the choice of instruments for controlling inflation. Finally, the study concludes that the fact that Pakistan has faced a volatile but moderate inflation rate in the period under review makes her a potential candidate for inflation targeting.