AN ANALYSIS OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY IN UPPER INDUS BASIN, PAKISTAN.

Abstract

This study was aimed at exploring the temperature fluctuations in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) and to find any correlation between the temperature fluctuations with the flow of the Indus water. Correlation between summer temperature and runoff of Indus at Besham Qilla gauging station was performed in Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS), while the map of decadal difference of mean annual temperature in UIB for the period of 1980-2010 was prepared in Arc Geographic Information Systems (GIS) 9.0. The results proved a negative correlation between the two variables of summer temperature and runoff, with a Pearson Correlation value of -.004, in the middle elevation basins of ephemeral snow of UIB. The decadal temperature variance map proved that extreme northern UIB lies in region experiencing decadal variance between -0.30°C to 0.16°C. The map also indicated a 0.4°C rising trend of temperature in areas around Kakul and Astore. This rising trend could lead to increase flow and sedimentation rates of Indus. Such fluctuations in temperature trends of UIB were critical since this region served as the freshwater reserve of our country.